← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 52% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 |
| Exeter win | 22% | 4.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Wrexham −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Oliver Rathbone · Wrexham |
| 7' | ⚽ | Max Cleworth · Wrexham |
| 25' | ⚽ | Ollie Palmer · Wrexham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 72' | ⚽ | Oliver Rathbone · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | STōK Cae Ras |
| coach days | 1241.00 | 784.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1635.33 | 1605.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.70 | -17.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |