← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 71% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.45 |
| Shrewsbury win | 10% | 10.13 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury +1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Birmingham +1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
| 30' | 🟨 | Keshi Anderson · Birmingham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Aaron Pierre · Shrewsbury |
| 38' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 55' | ⚽ | Tom Bloxham · Shrewsbury |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leo Castledine · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| coach days | 22.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1515.95 | 1574.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.94 | 24.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.78 |
| league points | 8.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 72.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |