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Bolton 2–1 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton win54%1.76
Draw25%4.00
Blackpool win21%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool −0.7551%1.91
Bolton −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Kyle Joseph · Blackpool
35'🟨George Thomason · Bolton
45'🟨Josh Sheehan · Bolton
50'🟨Szabolcs Schön · Bolton
52'🟨Kyle Joseph · Blackpool
53'⚽George Thomason · Bolton
57'🟨Oliver Norburn · Blackpool
79'🟨Zachary Ashworth · Blackpool
85'🟨George Johnston · Bolton
88'🟨Lee Evans · Blackpool
90'🟨Aaron Collins

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots6
4On target2
1Corners3
17Fouls16
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBoltonBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.69
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueToughsheet Community Stadium
· Bolton
90'🟨Dominic Ballard · Blackpool
90'⚽Aaron Collins · Bolton
coach days1606.0083.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.712.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.24
dominance (last 5)0.470.59
elo1566.681520.52
elo momentum (last 5)10.53-44.00
eye test v1-0.020.15
eye trend v10.010.09
first sub minute (last 10)59.4057.60
form points (last 5)9.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.831.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.620.64
league points23.0017.00
league rank9.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)50.2055.00
rest days13.906.90
scorer concentration0.200.28
season ppg1.641.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.204.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.4016.20
skill v10.030.27
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.40
state index0.20-0.79
sterile dominance v1-0.15-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.32
threat rate (last 5)0.270.30
travel km—42.00
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20