← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 35% | 2.76 |
| Exeter win | 34% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Exeter +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 777.00 | 381.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1607.79 | 1596.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.01 | -23.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |