← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 76% | 1.25 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.26 |
| Northampton win | 8% | 13.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −1.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Birmingham −1.75 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.58 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Allsop · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 161.00 |
| 1377.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1576.53 | 1564.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.25 | 3.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| league points | 29.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 14.15 | 10.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.87 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.78 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |