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Stockport 4–1 Reading

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Tue, Oct 29, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Parsons

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport win54%1.80
Draw24%4.00
Reading win22%4.41

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading βˆ’0.7551%1.89
Stockport βˆ’0.7549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Will Collar · Stockport
30'⚽Chem Campbell · Reading
33'⚽Kyle Wootton · Stockport
42'⚽ (pen)Louie Barry · Stockport
53'🟨Ibou Touray · Stockport
68'⚽Louie Barry · Stockport
74'🟨Lewis Wing · Reading

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
16Shots2
9On target1
4Corners2
9Fouls14
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStockportReading
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.36β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.25β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.35β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.72β€”
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEdgeley Park
coach days1093.00516.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.60-5.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.209.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.081.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.47
elo1645.511476.98
elo momentum (last 5)-10.1357.60
eye test v1-0.28-0.32
eye trend v1-0.50-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)56.8058.10
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.35
keeper form v1β€”0.67
league points18.0022.00
league rank12.009.00
matches since blank3.007.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)52.0045.00
rest days3.243.34
scorer concentration0.330.17
season ppg1.501.83
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.2012.60
skill v10.06-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.80
state index0.260.36
sterile dominance v10.33-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80