← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.76 |
| Northampton win | 20% | 4.94 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Lincoln −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Tariqe Fosu-Henry · Northampton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Jack Baldwin · Northampton |
| 18' | ⚽ | Thomas Hamer · Lincoln |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tyler Roberts · Northampton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tyler Roberts · Northampton |
| 75' | 🟥 | Tyler Roberts · Northampton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Erik Ring · Lincoln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Wickens · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nesta Guinness-Walker · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days |
| 363.00 |
| 1366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1588.08 | 1572.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.14 | -8.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.21 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |