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Blackpool 2–2 Wigan

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Mon, Oct 28, 08:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Hallam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win42%2.30
Wigan win29%3.31
Draw29%3.32

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wigan βˆ’0.2551%1.91
Blackpool βˆ’0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Dion Rankine · Wigan
32'🟨Sonny Carey · Blackpool
41'⚽Matthew Smith · Wigan
45'⚽ (og)Jason Kerr · Blackpool
50'🟨Tyrese Francois · Wigan
56'🟨Dion Rankine · Wigan
61'🟨Oliver Casey · Blackpool
69'🟨Silko Thomas · Wigan
90'⚽ (og)Will Aimson · Blackpool

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
22Shots11
6On target5
2Corners4
10Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolWigan
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.600.67
cards avg (last 5)0.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBloomfield Road
coach days57.00666.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.371.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.14
dominance (last 5)0.600.53
elo1537.751497.14
elo momentum (last 5)-19.545.39
eye test v10.22-0.25
eye trend v1-0.520.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.7049.20
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.600.82
league points15.0013.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0084.60
possession avg (last 5)58.0054.00
rest days6.056.05
scorer concentration0.280.40
season ppg1.251.08
shot diff avg (last 5)4.802.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.40
skill v10.850.92
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.302.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
state index-0.30-0.14
sterile dominance v10.620.79
threat rate (last 10)0.250.18
threat rate (last 3)0.220.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
travel kmβ€”38.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00