← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 |
| Mansfield win | 19% | 5.24 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mansfield +0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Willum Thor Willumsson · Birmingham |
| 22' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Aaron Lewis · Mansfield |
| 56' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 63' | ⚽ | Lee Gregory · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 1455.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1655.71 | 1572.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.72 | 38.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| league points | 23.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 70.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | 1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 1.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |