← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Reading win | 32% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.64 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Reading |
| 36' | ⚽ | Michael Craig · Reading |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 77' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 752.00 | 509.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1638.79 | 1449.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.86 | 27.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |