← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 54% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 |
| Bolton win | 21% | 4.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Birmingham −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 18' | 🟨 | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Bolton |
| 78' | 🟨 | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 143.00 | 1574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1560.01 | 1564.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.69 | 52.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.84 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.92 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 130.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |