← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 49% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 |
| Lincoln win | 23% | 4.09 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Bailey Cadamarteri · Lincoln |
| 14' | ⚽ | Keshi Anderson · Birmingham |
| 47' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 51' | 🟨 | Alex Cochrane · Birmingham |
| 52' | ⚽ | Willum Thor Willumsson · Birmingham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Keshi Anderson · Birmingham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days | 353.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1620.77 | 1539.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.16 | 42.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.78 | 52.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.20 | 68.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.41 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.50 | 1.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |