← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 37% | 26% | 2.67 | fair |
| Stockport win | 34% | 45% | 2.82 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Stockport +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Louie Barry · Stockport |
| 58' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Stockport |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fraser Horsfall · Stockport |
| 61' | 🟨 | Karoy Anderson · Charlton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ethan Pye · Stockport |
| 66' | ⚽ | Rarmani Edmonds-Green · Charlton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fraser Horsfall · Stockport |
| 87' | 🟥 | Fraser Horsfall · Stockport |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibou Touray · Stockport |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Fiorini · Stockport |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 261.00 | 1083.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1463.96 | 1507.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.34 | -16.67 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 25.77 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |