← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 71% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.81 |
| Burton win | 11% | 8.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Burton −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Mason Bennett · Burton |
| 47' | 🟨 | George Johnston · Bolton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 63' | ⚽ | Randell Williams · Bolton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Burton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Randell Williams · Bolton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ben Whitfield · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| 1571.00 |
| 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1556.15 | 1555.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.08 | -68.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 58.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |