← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe win | 46% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
| Peterboro win | 29% | 36% | 3.38 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Wycombe −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Donay O'Brien-Brady · Peterboro |
| 39' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Fernandez · Peterboro |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ricky-Jade Jones · Peterboro |
| 53' | 🟨 | Archie Collins · Peterboro |
| 63' | ⚽ | Richard Kone · Wycombe |
| 67' | ⚽ | Richard Kone · Wycombe |
| 71' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Fernandez · Peterboro |
| 71' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Fernandez · Peterboro |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Richard Kone · Wycombe |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aaron Morley · Wycombe |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wycombe | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Adams Park |
| 🟨 |
| Joel Randall · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 626.00 | 657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1529.35 | 1510.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.39 | -20.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.52 |
| league points | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.03 | 23.61 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |