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Crawley Town 3–5 Shrewsbury

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crawley Town win43%2.25
Shrewsbury win29%3.28
Draw27%3.65

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crawley Town −0.2551%1.90
Shrewsbury −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽John Marquis · Shrewsbury
27'🟨Josh Feeney · Shrewsbury
33'⚽Will Swan · Crawley Town
37'🟨Funso Ojo · Shrewsbury
43'🟨John Marquis · Shrewsbury
44'🟨Jay Williams · Crawley Town
53'🟨Josh Flint · Crawley Town
56'🟨Josh Flint · Crawley Town
56'🟥Josh Flint · Crawley Town
62'⚽Junior Quitirna · Crawley Town
72'⚽Toto Nsiala

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots18
5On target6
4Corners6
10Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCrawley TownShrewsbury
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.430.67
cards avg (last 5)3.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBroadfield Stadium
· Shrewsbury
75'🟨Toby Mullarkey · Crawley Town
76'⚽ (pen)John Marquis · Shrewsbury
77'🟨Taylor Perry · Shrewsbury
86'⚽George Lloyd · Shrewsbury
90'🟨Joy Mukena · Crawley Town
90'⚽George Lloyd · Shrewsbury
90'⚽Jeremy Kelly · Crawley Town
coach days11.00285.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.372.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.40
elo1468.791555.89
elo momentum (last 5)-34.67-36.59
eye test v1-0.13-1.27
eye trend v1-0.01-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)59.1060.90
form points (last 5)1.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.55
keeper form v10.670.65
league points7.005.00
league rank21.0022.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.006.00
matches since win7.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6069.80
possession avg (last 5)61.4045.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.25
season ppg0.780.50
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.609.00
skill v11.22-0.99
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.001.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.20
state index-0.94-0.82
sterile dominance v11.26-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.170.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.15
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20