← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham win | 46% | 51% | 2.07 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
| Reading win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andre Garcia · Reading |
| 47' | 🟨 | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Hakeem Odofin · Rotherham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sam Smith · Reading |
| 61' | 🟨 | Reece James · Rotherham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 68' | 🟥 | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 77' | 🟨 | Cameron Dawson · Rotherham |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Michael Craig · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 187.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.33 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1420.31 | 1483.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.64 | 4.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 24.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |