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Mansfield 2–0 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win43%2.25
Mansfield win32%3.02
Draw26%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mansfield +0.2550%1.93
Blackpool +0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.67
Under43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Will Evans · Mansfield
17'🟨Louis Reed · Mansfield
29'🟨Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield
39'⚽Will Evans · Mansfield
45'🟨Adedeji Oshilaja · Mansfield
67'🟨Kyle Joseph · Blackpool
81'🟨Aaron Lewis · Mansfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
6Shots9
3On target2
10Corners3
12Fouls8
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMansfieldBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.61
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOne Call Stadium
coach days1434.0034.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.607.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.593.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.05
dominance (last 5)0.410.55
elo1653.231573.81
elo momentum (last 5)40.4749.77
eye test v1-0.250.41
eye trend v10.06-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)58.6057.56
form points (last 5)13.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.15
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.45
keeper form v10.760.80
league points17.0015.00
league rank3.0010.00
matches since blank14.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2078.60
possession avg (last 5)43.8053.20
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg2.131.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.4013.00
skill v1-0.870.32
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.22
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
state index0.840.65
sterile dominance v1-0.420.21
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40