← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Tallis
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 57% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 |
| Cambridge win | 19% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Cambridge −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Ryan Loft · Cambridge |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 45' | 🟨 | Johnly Yfeko · Exeter |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 78' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 735.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1618.80 | 1475.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.09 | -43.91 |
| eye test v1 | -1.23 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.54 |
| league points | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.48 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |