← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 56% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.23 |
| Burton win | 21% | 4.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Burton −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Chem Campbell · Reading |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dylan Williams · Burton |
| 42' | ⚽ | Chem Campbell · Reading |
| 50' | 🟨 | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 81' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Burton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Reading |
| 84' | ⚽ | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Burton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Charlie Savage · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days |
| 488.00 |
| 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1419.38 | 1592.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.03 | -34.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.86 | 58.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.43 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |