← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 |
| Northampton win | 20% | 5.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bolton +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.81 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 10' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 17' | 🟨 | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 23' | ⚽ | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Szabolcs Schön · Bolton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Samy Chouchane · Northampton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Eoin Toal · Bolton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tyler Roberts · Northampton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Dion Charles · Bolton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Randell Williams · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Bolton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1338.00 |
| 1553.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1580.66 | 1538.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.19 | -34.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |