← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 41% | 2.41 |
| Crawley Town win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mansfield +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Lee Gregory · Mansfield |
| 13' | 🟨 | Will Evans · Mansfield |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ade Adeyemo · Crawley Town |
| 29' | 🟨 | Keanu Baccus · Mansfield |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bradley Ibrahim · Crawley Town |
| 44' | 🟨 | Aaron Lewis · Mansfield |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ronan Darcy · Crawley Town |
| 76' | 🟨 | Toby Mullarkey · Crawley Town |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jack Roles · Crawley Town |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ben Waine |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| coach days | 0.00 | 1430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1484.97 | 1642.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.44 | 12.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.60 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.84 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |