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Shrewsbury 1–1 Rotherham

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rotherham win46%2.08
Draw28%3.40
Shrewsbury win25%3.81

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rotherham +0.2554%1.78
Shrewsbury +0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.80
Over47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽George Lloyd · Shrewsbury
25'🟨Reece James · Rotherham
33'🟨Mallik Wilks · Rotherham
69'🟨Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury
70'⚽ (pen)Jonson Clarke-Harris · Rotherham
88'🟨Morgan Feeney · Shrewsbury

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
4Shots12
1On target1
3Corners5
17Fouls7
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricShrewsburyRotherham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.560.67
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Croud Meadow
coach days271.00180.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.204.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.208.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.804.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.500.55
elo1570.561535.21
elo momentum (last 5)-36.68-27.90
eye test v1-0.48-0.03
eye trend v10.07-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)59.7168.50
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.10
league points3.006.00
league rank23.0021.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.8068.00
possession avg (last 5)40.4043.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg0.430.86
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.202.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.8013.80
skill v1-1.68-1.27
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.294.17
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
state index-0.34-0.32
sterile dominance v1-1.16-1.21
threat rate (last 10)0.250.31
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40