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Reading 2–1 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Sat, Sep 28, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: S. Oldham

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win38%2.50
Reading win34%2.83
Draw28%3.52

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield +053%1.83
Reading +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Ben Elliott · Reading
21'⚽Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield
22'🟨Brodie Spencer · Huddersfield
30'⚽Harvey Knibbs · Reading
49'🟨Jaheim Headley · Huddersfield
57'⚽Ben Elliott · Reading
62'🟨David Kasumu · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots19
2On target7
2Corners11
13Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricReadingHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.580.76
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueSelect Car Leasing Stadium
coach days485.00150.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.263.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.580.57
elo1466.831512.22
elo momentum (last 5)-16.16-26.46
eye test v10.16-0.34
eye trend v1-0.130.21
first sub minute (last 10)61.5051.80
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.59β€”
league points7.0012.00
league rank20.005.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)55.8057.20
rest days6.903.70
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg1.171.71
shot diff avg (last 5)4.403.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.6012.60
skill v10.490.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age31.4125.36
state index-0.18-0.21
sterile dominance v10.060.55
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
travel kmβ€”253.80
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40