← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Miles
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 |
| Crawley Town win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Bolton +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Victor Adeboyejo · Bolton |
| 59' | 🟨 | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 78' | ⚽ | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jeremy Kelly · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joy Mukena · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| coach days | 27.00 | 1550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1501.67 | 1521.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.77 | -51.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.64 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |