← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Rotherham win | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Rotherham +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 14' | ⚽ | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 26' | 🟨 | Christ Junior Tiehi · Rotherham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alex Cochrane · Birmingham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joseph Hungbo · Rotherham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sean Raggett · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 173.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1554.38 | 1515.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.40 | 51.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 73.00 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 68.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |