← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 54% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 |
| Shrewsbury win | 20% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Mansfield −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Leo Castledine · Shrewsbury |
| 37' | 🟨 | Toby Savin · Shrewsbury |
| 40' | 🟨 | Leo Castledine · Shrewsbury |
| 42' | 🟨 | George Lloyd · Shrewsbury |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Lee Gregory · Mansfield |
| 53' | 🟨 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 70' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury |
| 86' | ⚽ | Aaron Lewis · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 1420.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1618.82 | 1577.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.91 | -51.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 59.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |