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Huddersfield 1–3 Northampton

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win70%1.36
Draw19%5.30
Northampton win11%9.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Northampton −1.552%1.88
Huddersfield −1.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.65
Under41%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽ (og)Michał Helik · Northampton
20'🟨Tariqe Fosu-Henry · Northampton
25'⚽Cameron McGeehan · Northampton
33'🟨Jaheim Headley · Huddersfield
43'🟨Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton
58'⚽Tariqe Fosu-Henry · Northampton
79'🟨Akinwale Odimayo · Northampton
80'⚽Josh Koroma · Huddersfield
83'🟨Akinwale Odimayo · Northampton
83'🟥Akinwale Odimayo · Northampton
89'🟨Luke Mbete · Northampton
90'🟨Brodie Spencer · Huddersfield
90'🟨Jack Baldwin · Northampton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots7
4On target3
7Corners1
10Fouls9
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldNorthampton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.700.40
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smith's Stadium
coach days
143.00
1328.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.620.38
elo1429.131586.07
elo momentum (last 5)77.66-13.40
eye test v1-0.01-0.28
eye trend v10.260.11
first sub minute (last 10)59.3050.70
form points (last 5)12.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.790.67
league points12.005.00
league rank5.0020.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8065.00
possession avg (last 5)55.6044.20
rest days7.007.10
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg2.401.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.40-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.209.20
skill v10.22-1.50
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age25.36—
state index0.75-0.10
sterile dominance v10.11-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60