← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Stevenage win | 35% | 2.73 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Stevenage +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Edward Francis · Exeter |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kami Doyle · Exeter |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Exeter |
| 83' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 721.00 | 173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1598.93 | 1557.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.58 | 4.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |