← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 57% | 52% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.18 | value: +3% |
| Exeter win | 19% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Exeter −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Odeluga Offiah · Blackpool |
| 19' | ⚽ | CJ Hamilton · Blackpool |
| 21' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Blackpool |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kyle Joseph · Blackpool |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel · Blackpool |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Exeter |
| 85' | 🟨 | Lee Evans · Blackpool |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| 🟨 |
| Jordan Rhodes · Blackpool |
| 88' | ⚽ | Edward Francis · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Tyrer · Blackpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Husband · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 13.00 | 714.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1483.74 | 1466.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.68 | 1.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 25.57 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |