⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Wrexham 3–0 Shrewsbury

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Sat, Sep 7, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Chilowicz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham win67%1.44
Draw19%5.00
Shrewsbury win14%7.50

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Shrewsbury βˆ’1.2551%1.91
Wrexham βˆ’1.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury
15'⚽Ollie Palmer · Wrexham
28'🟨James McClean · Wrexham
35'🟨George Dobson · Wrexham
42'⚽Elliot Lee · Wrexham
44'🟨Elliot Lee · Wrexham
59'⚽Jack Marriott · Wrexham
69'🟨Funso Ojo · Shrewsbury
76'🟨Carl Winchester · Shrewsbury
90'🟨George Lloyd · Shrewsbury

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots9
6On target3
5Corners7
12Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWrexhamShrewsbury
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.35β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)1.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueSTōK Cae Ras
coach days1164.00250.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.753.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.12
dominance (last 5)0.490.44
elo1634.041605.63
elo momentum (last 5)43.71-57.36
eye test v1-0.09-0.92
eye trend v1-0.22β€”
first sub minute (last 10)61.0055.75
form points (last 5)13.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.781.37
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.50
keeper form v10.830.62
league points10.003.00
league rank1.0020.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2060.25
possession avg (last 5)37.0035.50
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.25β€”
season ppg2.500.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.608.80
skill v1-1.77-2.50
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.25
sot for avg (last 10)5.00β€”
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.00
state index1.04-0.34
sterile dominance v1-1.43-1.44
threat rate (last 10)0.33β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.320.30
threat rate (last 5)0.290.25
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.20