← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 64% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 |
| Exeter win | 14% | 6.66 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −1 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Exeter −1 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Kami Doyle · Exeter |
| 49' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 66' | 🟨 | George Johnston · Bolton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joe Whitworth · Exeter |
| 81' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johnly Yfeko · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1522.00 | 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1556.03 | 1593.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.09 | -25.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |