← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miles
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 44% | 50% | 2.17 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
| Cambridge win | 28% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Cambridge +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.76 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | James Husband · Blackpool |
| 19' | 🟨 | James Brophy · Cambridge |
| 28' | ⚽ | Shayne Lavery · Cambridge |
| 38' | ⚽ | James Husband · Blackpool |
| 39' | ⚽ | Kyle Joseph · Blackpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Bennett · Cambridge |
| 53' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Blackpool |
| 58' | 🟨 | Elkan Baggott · Blackpool |
| 59' | ⚽ | Danny Andrew · Cambridge |
| 72' | ⚽ | Brandon Njoku · Cambridge |
| 75' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Cledara Abbey Stadium |
| Shayne Lavery · Cambridge |
| 76' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Blackpool |
| 80' | 🟨 | Hayden Coulson · Blackpool |
| 84' | 🟨 | Oliver Casey · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 176.00 | 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1353.15 | 1487.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.19 | -30.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 25.99 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |