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Cambridge 4–4 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miles

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win44%2.17
Draw28%3.46
Cambridge win28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool +0.2551%1.88
Cambridge +0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.76
Over46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽James Husband · Blackpool
19'🟨James Brophy · Cambridge
28'⚽Shayne Lavery · Cambridge
38'⚽James Husband · Blackpool
39'⚽Kyle Joseph · Blackpool
45'🟨Liam Bennett · Cambridge
53'⚽Dominic Ballard · Blackpool
58'🟨Elkan Baggott · Blackpool
59'⚽Danny Andrew · Cambridge
72'⚽Brandon Njoku · Cambridge
75'⚽Shayne Lavery

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
9Shots12
6On target7
2Corners10
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCambridgeBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.45—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.13
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.13
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.680.57
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCledara Abbey Stadium
· Cambridge
76'🟨Oliver Norburn · Blackpool
80'🟨Hayden Coulson · Blackpool
84'🟨Oliver Casey · Blackpool
coach days176.0023.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.602.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.773.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.61
elo1520.661523.09
elo momentum (last 5)-37.37-22.26
eye test v10.15-0.76
eye trend v1-0.24—
first sub minute (last 10)66.30—
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v10.63—
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8073.00
possession avg (last 5)45.2046.50
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.406.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8016.40
skill v1-1.18-0.62
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.50
sot for avg (last 10)4.90—
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.50
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.50
state index-0.43-0.11
sterile dominance v1-0.72-0.93
threat rate (last 10)0.25—
threat rate (last 3)0.240.32
threat rate (last 5)0.260.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20