← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Burton win | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Stevenage +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Dan Sweeney · Stevenage |
| 34' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 34' | 🟨 | Louis Thompson · Stevenage |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tyreece Simpson · Stevenage |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ciaran Gilligan · Burton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kane Smith · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 54.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1627.38 | 1549.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.62 | 26.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 57.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |