← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 36% | 2.73 |
| Exeter win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Northampton +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over | 44% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Tristan Crama · Exeter |
| 35' | 🟨 | Edward Francis · Exeter |
| 43' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 55' | 🟨 | Aaron McGowan · Northampton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Callum Morton · Northampton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luke Mbete · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 1293.00 | 686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1591.94 | 1613.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.17 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |