← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 |
| Burton win | 18% | 5.39 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Burton −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Mansfield |
| 7' | ⚽ | Billy Bodin · Burton |
| 9' | 🟨 | Jack Armer · Burton |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Armer · Mansfield |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ben Whitfield · Burton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Louis Reed · Mansfield |
| 78' | 🟨 | Terence Vancooten · Burton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Billy Bodin · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Geraldo Bajrami · Burton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lee Gregory · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 1385.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 0.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1469.48 | 1341.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.18 | -4.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 55.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -2.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |