← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Wrexham win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Wrexham +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 28' | ⚽ | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 41' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Wrexham |
| 44' | ⚽ | David Strelec · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Racecourse Ground |
| coach days | 1766.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1562.61 | 1538.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.92 | 0.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | 1.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 70.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 20.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 1.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 30.74 | 27.73 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 2.49 |