← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 40% | 2.32 |
| Watford win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Coventry +0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 25' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 25' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Coventry |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 85' | ⚽ | Victor Torp · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 121.00 | 547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.21 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1400.67 | 1631.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.65 | 4.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 57.00 | 92.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.41 | — |
| state index | -1.39 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 116.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.67 |