← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Portsmouth win | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 19' | ⚽ | August Priske · Birmingham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Luke Le Roux · Portsmouth |
| 63' | 🟨 | Carlos Vicente · Birmingham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days |
| 1217.00 |
| 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1466.39 | 1541.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.20 | 19.88 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.50 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| league points | 54.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.44 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 194.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.24 |