← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 68% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.00 |
| Oxford win | 13% | 7.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Oxford −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.38 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 39' | 🟨 | Thierno Ballo · Millwall |
| 48' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 517.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1704.63 | 1546.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.82 | 9.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 80.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.69 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.73 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -1.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.63 |