← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 76% | 1.22 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.50 |
| QPR win | 10% | 9.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −1.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| QPR −1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 9' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich |
| 46' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · Ipswich |
| 76' | 🟨 | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kasey McAteer · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| 1613.00 |
| 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1576.89 | 1425.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.58 | -30.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 81.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.31 | — |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 112.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.17 |