← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Norwich win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Hull −0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Hull |
| 26' | ⚽ | Mohamed Touré · Norwich |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
| 35' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 67' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edmond-Paris Maghoma · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 305.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1469.67 | 1518.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.87 | 19.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 70.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 29.92 | 27.36 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 167.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.68 |