← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Sheffield United win | 27% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Derby −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Derby |
| 18' | 🟨 | Sondre Langås · Derby |
| 26' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harrison Burrows · Sheffield United |
| 54' | 🟨 | Japhet Tanganga · Sheffield United |
| 62' | ⚽ | Thomas Cannon · Sheffield United |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sydie Peck · Sheffield United |
| 89' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sammie Szmodics · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tahith Chong · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 455.00 |
| 883.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 4.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1496.24 | 1477.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.23 | -20.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 69.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 1.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 26.36 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 50.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.88 |