← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 49% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Stoke win | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bristol City −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Delano Burgzorg · Bristol City |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 60' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Bristol City |
| 88' | ⚽ | Sam Bell · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 15 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 121.00 | 486.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1447.31 | 1395.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.35 | -47.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 59.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.70 | -1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.98 |