← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 28, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Ipswich win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Ipswich −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Ipswich |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ivan Azón · Ipswich |
| 80' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jack Clarke · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 301.00 | 1609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1568.44 | 1575.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.98 | -0.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| league points | 76.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 217.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.71 |