← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Portsmouth win | 27% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Lamine Cissé · Stoke |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hayden Matthews · Portsmouth |
| 66' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 82' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days |
| 479.00 |
| 1210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1411.41 | 1450.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.99 | 30.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.34 | -1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| league points | 55.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -1.50 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.32 | — |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 255.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.85 |