← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 49% | 1.79 |
| Bristol City win | 25% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bristol City −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Phil Neumann · Birmingham |
| 14' | 🟨 | Jhon Solís · Birmingham |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jhon Solís · Birmingham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Delano Burgzorg · Bristol City |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Tomi Horvat · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 693.00 |
| 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1535.26 | 1453.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.90 | 12.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 60.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.44 | — |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.19 |