← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 61% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.10 |
| Watford win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Middlesbrough −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ | David Strelec · Middlesbrough |
| 48' | ⚽ | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 58' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 74' | 🟨 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 85' | 🟨 | Aidan Morris · Middlesbrough |
| 85' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days |
| 267.00 |
| 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1528.42 | 1410.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.00 | -52.48 |
| eye test v1 | 1.44 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 76.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.10 | -1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.34 | 0.87 |