⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Sheffield United 1–3 Blackburn

← EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Wed, Apr 22, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Hallam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win45%2.05
Blackburn win27%3.40
Draw27%3.40

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn βˆ’0.555%1.73
Sheffield United βˆ’0.545%2.08

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.91
Under50%1.91

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn
15'🟨Japhet Tanganga · Sheffield United
32'⚽Ryoya Morishita · Blackburn
45'⚽Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn
53'🟨Ryoya Morishita · Blackburn
57'⚽Harrison Burrows · Sheffield United
58'🟨Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
82'🟨Yuri Ribeiro · Blackburn
90'🟨Todd Cantwell · Blackburn
90'🟨Eiran Joe Cashin · Blackburn

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
13Shots8
4On target5
2Corners4
5Fouls10
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedBlackburn
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.660.68
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days873.00264.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.892.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.07
dominance (last 5)0.600.49
elo1653.031566.29
elo momentum (last 5)-0.988.43
eye test v10.82-0.93
eye trend v10.450.38
first sub minute (last 10)56.0058.70
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.650.72
league points57.0049.00
league rank16.0021.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4072.40
possession avg (last 5)55.0038.20
rest days4.204.99
scorer concentration0.200.19
season ppg1.331.11
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.0010.60
skill v10.61-1.15
solidity v10.320.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.002.40
squad age27.7626.21
state index0.28-0.12
sterile dominance v10.04-1.05
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
travel kmβ€”78.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.221.44
xg for avg (last 5)1.670.87