← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 57% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Watford win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Watford −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Callum Styles · West Brom |
| 21' | ⚽ | Isaac Price · West Brom |
| 28' | 🟨 | Daniel Imray · West Brom |
| 31' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 41' | ⚽ | Daryl Dike · West Brom |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 48' | 🟨 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jayson Molumby · West Brom |
| 69' | ⚽ | Daniel Imray · West Brom |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alex Mowatt · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days |
| 20.00 |
| 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1442.94 | 1424.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.08 | -41.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 49.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 1.41 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 27.41 |
| state index | 0.22 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 143.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 0.80 |